论文标题：North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation

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作者：Suchul Kang & Elfatih A. B. Eltahir

发表时间：2018/07/31

数字识别码：10.1038/s41467-018-05252-y

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《自然-通讯》发表的一项研究North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation指出，在温室气体排放的基准情景（BAU）下，华北平原的致命热浪可能会加重。湿球温度是用来测量温湿度的综合指标，而高分辨率模型模拟显示，灌溉情况良好的农业区，湿球温度屡屡冲破适宜人类生存的每日最大阈值。

图1：明升中国东部的特征概览：a.地形图，b.2005年灌溉区域以及年降雨量（等高线， mm），c. 日最高湿球温度（1979–2016），d.人口密度。图源：Suchul Kang & Elfatih Eltahir

华北平原的降雨量较少，因此农业区必须实行灌溉。然而，灌溉会增加地面湿度，导致热浪加剧。虽然研究人员预计华北平原的“致命热浪”（湿球温度达35°C并持续六个小时以上）会进一步增加，但此前并未就灌溉行为对热浪的影响展开研究。

图2：明升中国东部16个城市日最高湿球温度直方图。图源：Suchul Kang & Elfatih Eltahir

美国麻省理工学院的Elfatih Eltahir和Suchul Kang用高分辨率模型演示了在温室气体排放的基准情景下，灌溉会进一步加重华北平原的致命热浪。作者指出，灌溉和气候变化分别会让湿球温度增加0.5°C和2.9°C，而两者的复合效应会使湿球温度增加3.9°C。研究证实了湿度会对热浪产生重要影响。

摘要：North China Plain is the heartland of modern China. This fertile plain has experienced vast expansion of irrigated agriculture which cools surface temperature and moistens surface air, but boosts integrated measures of temperature and humidity, and hence enhances intensity of heatwaves. Here, we project based on an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations that climate change would add significantly to the anthropogenic effects of irrigation, increasing the risk from heatwaves in this region. Under the business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, North China Plain is likely to experience deadly heatwaves with wet-bulb temperature exceeding the threshold defining what Chinese farmers may tolerate while working outdoors. China is currently the largest contributor to the emissions of greenhouse gases, with potentially serious implications to its own population: continuation of the current pattern of global emissions may limit habitability in the most populous region, of the most populous country on Earth.

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（来源：明升手机版(明升中国)）