论文标题：“Death is certain, the time is not”: mortality and survival in Game of Thrones

期刊：

作者：Reidar P. Lystad and Benjamin T. Brown

发表时间：2018/12/10

数字识别码：10.1186/s40621-018-0174-7

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最近发表在开放获取期刊《伤害流行病学》(Injury Epidemiology)上的一项研究指出，作为美剧《权力的游戏》中的人物，忠于一个阵营以及性别为男，会提高他们的死亡概率。

来自澳大利亚麦考瑞大学的研究者对美剧《权力的游戏》全7季中所有重要人物的死亡进行了调研，发现如果人物改变阵营更容易活下来，比如提利昂·兰尼斯特，他从兰尼斯特家族叛变到了坦格利安家族。出身低微的人与出身高贵的人相比，死亡风险也更高。

澳大利亚健康创新研究所的伤害流行病学家、研究的通讯作者Reidar Lystad博士说：“《权力的游戏》中的人物死亡风险很高。到第7季结束时，超过一半的角色——330个人物中的186个——都已经死亡，目前最常见的死因是暴力致死。”

Lystad博士补充说：“这些发现对于追看这部剧的观众而言可能并不是什么手机版，但我们通过研究发现了几个与生死存亡相关的因素，可能可以帮助我们推断最终季中最后的幸存者是谁。”

《权利的游戏》中的花式死亡。

图片来自论文

作者们发现，大部分死亡事件都发生在维斯特洛（80.1%），最常见的死亡地点是家里。最常见的死因是受伤（73.7%）和对头颈部造成的伤害，其中包括13次砍头。整个7季中只有2起自然死亡：伊蒙学士和老奶妈，皆因衰老而死。其他死因还包括烧死（11.8%）或中毒（4.8%）。最常见的死亡场景为袭击（63.0%）、战争（24.4%）和死刑（5.4%）。

出场后一小时内就死亡的概率为14%左右。角色的生存时间从11秒到57小时15分不等。存活时间的中位数为28小时48分钟。

研究人员对《权力的游戏》第一季到第七季共67集中的330个角色的生死进行了数据收集。他们记录了角色们的社会人口数据，包括性别、社会状态、职业种类、信仰和所属阵营，以及他们的生存时间和死亡场景。这些信息被用来量化死亡的预测指标。研究人员还将他们的数据与互联网电影数据库（IMDb）和“权力的游戏维基”（Game of Thrones Wiki）数据库进行了交叉对比。

摘要：

Background

Game of Thrones is a popular television series known for its violent and graphic portrayal of the deaths of its characters. This study aimed to examine the mortality and survival of important characters in Game of Thrones.

Methods

Important characters appearing in Seasons 1 to 7 of Game of Thrones were included, and data on sociodemographic factors, time to death, and circumstances of death were recorded. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis with Cox proportional hazard regression modelling were used to quantify survival times and probabilities and to identify independent predictors of mortality, respectively.

Results

Of the 330 characters that were included, 186 (56.4%) had died by the end of the study period. All but 2 deaths were due to injury, burns, or poisoning, with the majority being caused by assault (63.0%) or operations of war (24.4%). The survival time ranged from 11 s to 57 h and 15 min, with the median survival time estimated to be 28 h and 48 min. The probability of surviving at least 1 h in the show was 0.86 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.89). The analyses revealed worse survival for characters who were male (P < 0.001), lowborn (P < 0.001), had not switched allegiance during the show (P < 0.001), and who featured more prominently in the show (P < 0.001). After adjusting for other factors, whether or not a character had switched allegiance during the show and how prominently a character featured in the show were revealed to be independent predictors of death.

Conclusions

The mortality risk is high among characters in Game of Thrones. The probability of dying within the first hour after first appearing on screen was about 14%. By the end of the seventh season, more than half of the important characters had died, with violent deaths being the most common by far. The probability of survival was worse for characters who were male or lowborn, who had not switched allegiance during the show, and who featured more prominently. There is great potential for preventing violent deaths in the world of Game of Thrones.

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期刊介绍:

Injury Epidemiology() is dedicated to advancing the scientific foundation for injury prevention and control through timely publication and dissemination of peer-reviewed research. Injury Epidemiology aims to be the premier venue for communicating epidemiologic studies of unintentional and intentional injuries, including, but not limited to, morbidity and mortality from motor vehicle crashes, drug overdose/poisoning, falls, drowning, fires/burns, iatrogenic injury, suicide, homicide, assaults, and abuse.

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