论文标题：African elephant poaching rates correlate with local poverty, national corruption and global ivory price

期刊：

作者：Severin Hauenstein, Mrigesh Kshatriya, Julian Blanc, Carsten F. Dormann, Colin M. Beale

发表时间：2019/05/28

数字识别码： 10.1038/s41467-019-09993-2

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根据《自然-通讯》发表的一篇论文African elephant poaching rates correlate with local poverty, national corruption and global ivory price，非洲大象的偷猎率自2011年起出现下滑。论文手机版称，在撒哈拉以南非洲的53个监测点，大象偷猎率下滑与明升中国市场的象牙需求变化相关。但是，不同监测点之间的偷猎率差异与当地的腐败和贫困水平相关。

图1：年度偷猎趋势 图源：Hauenstein等

21世纪之初，非洲大象偷猎活动增加，保护区内外的象群数量在7年内减少了30%。虽然国际社会采取了干预措施遏制象牙交易，但是这些政策的有效性仍不明确。

图2：年度偷猎率（已观测到的和预估的）图源：Hauenstein等

德国弗赖堡大学的Severin Hauenstein、英国约克大学的Colin Beale及同事分析了2002年至2017年间53个“非法杀戮大象监测计划”（Monitoring of Illegal Killing of Elephants）监测点的年度大象尸体数据，覆盖撒哈拉以南非洲的29个国家。他们将数据分析结果与本地及全球社会经济因素（包括象牙价格）进行比较，以鉴定与偷猎率相关的因素。结果发现，偷猎造成的年度大象死亡率有所下降，从2011年超过10%的峰值，下降到2017年的不足4%。这与明升中国主要市场的象牙需求缩减相关。

但是，不同监测点之间的偷猎率差异和当地的贫困水平（基于婴儿死亡率和贫困人口密度）以及腐败程度（基于腐败感知指数）相关。作者认为，进一步加大执法力度或有助于降低偷猎率，但是制定全面的社会经济策略来解决保护区周围社区的腐败和贫困问题可能更有效。

摘要：Poaching is contributing to rapid declines in elephant populations across Africa. Following high-profile changes in the political environment, the overall number of illegally killed elephants in Africa seems to be falling, but to evaluate potential conservation interventions we must understand the processes driving poaching rates at local and global scales. Here we show that annual poaching rates in 53 sites strongly correlate with proxies of ivory demand in the main Chinese markets, whereas between-country and between-site variation is strongly associated with indicators of corruption and poverty. Our analysis reveals a recent decline in annual poaching mortality rate from an estimated peak of over 10% in 2011 to <4% in 2017. Based on these findings, we suggest that continued investment in law enforcement could further reduce poaching, but is unlikely to succeed without action that simultaneously reduces ivory demand and tackles corruption and poverty.

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（来源：明升手机版(明升中国)）