论文标题：Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming

期刊：

作者：Christopher J. Smith, Piers M. Forster, Myles Allen, Jan Fuglestvedt, Richard J. Millar, Joeri Rogelj, Kirsten Zickfeld

发表时间：2019/01/15

数字识别码： s41467-018-07999-w

原文链接：http://t.cn/E55t2Sp

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《自然-通讯》本周发表的一项模拟研究Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming显示，如果从现在开始逐步淘汰使用寿命已满的化石燃料基础设施，那么将全球平均升温幅度控制在比工业社会前高1.5°C以内的可能性为64%。研究指出，如果拖延到2030年前才开始行动，即使设施退役率加快，仍会降低实现1.5°C目标的可能性。

图1 化石燃料不同的淘汰率（FAST，MID和SLOW）以及2018年起所有排放突然停止（ZERO）四种情况下，相比于2018年的峰值温度变化。Smith 等

英国利兹大学的Christopher Smith及同事通过分析基于不同场景的气候模型，考察如果CO2排放从2018年底开始以近线性速率逐步减少，并在40年后趋近于零的情况下，会给全球升温带来哪些影响。在这些场景中，使用化石燃料的电厂、汽车、飞机、轮船和工业基础设施都会在使用寿命到期后由零碳方案取代。

图2 化石燃料不同的淘汰率（FAST，MID和SLOW）以及2030年起所有排放突然停止（ZERO）四种情况下，相比于2018年的峰值温度变化。Smith 等

基于研究结果，作者认为，如果立即减少现有排放CO2的基础设施的使用，有64%的几率能将升温控制在1.5°C以下，但拖延到2030年前才开始行动则会让这一几率低于50%。不过，这一研究结果的前提是今后数十年不会出现大规模气候临界点的突破，比如多年冻土的大规模融化。

摘要：Committed warming describes how much future warming can be expected from historical emissions due to inertia in the climate system. It is usually defined in terms of the level of warming above the present for an abrupt halt of emissions. Owing to socioeconomic constraints, this situation is unlikely, so we focus on the committed warming from present-day fossil fuel assets. Here we show that if carbon-intensive infrastructure is phased out at the end of its design lifetime from the end of 2018, there is a 64% chance that peak global mean temperature rise remains below 1.5 °C. Delaying mitigation until 2030 considerably reduces the likelihood that 1.5 °C would be attainable even if the rate of fossil fuel retirement was accelerated. Although the challenges laid out by the Paris Agreement are daunting, we indicate 1.5 °C remains possible and is attainable with ambitious and immediate emission reduction across all sectors.

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