论文标题：Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise

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作者：Lena Reimann, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Sally Brown, Jochen Hinkel, Richard S. J. Tol

发表时间：2018/10/16

数字识别码：10.1038/s41467-018-06645-9

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《自然-通讯》本周发表的一篇论文Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise指出，由于海平面上升，位于地中海地区的联合国教科文组织（UNESCO）世界遗产地（包括威尼斯、比萨大教堂广场、罗得中世纪古城）正面临海岸侵蚀和沿海洪水的威胁。这项研究建立了一项风险指数，指数分析了到本世纪末海平面上升对遗产地构成沿海灾害的状况，基于这一指数可对这些世界遗产地进行排名。

图1：联合国教科文组织世界遗产地威尼斯及其泻湖是地中海地区受沿海洪水和侵蚀威胁最大的地区之一。 海平面上升将在本世纪加剧这些风险。图源：Lena Reimann

地中海地区有多处都被列入了UNESCO世界遗产名录，其中许多都位于沿海地区。海平面上升会对这些遗产地构成威胁，需要通过地方层面上的风险信息才能制定出适应性规划。

图2：UNESCO世界遗产地威尼斯。图源：Lena Reimann

德国基尔大学的Lena Reimann及同事将模型模拟与世界遗产地的数据相结合，建立了一项风险指数，这项指数针对地中海地区49处沿海的UNESCO世界遗产地，评估了到本世纪末海平面上升对其所造成的沿海洪水和海岸侵蚀威胁。作者发现，37处遗产地可能会遭受百年一遇的洪灾（指洪灾在任意一年的发生几率为1%）；42处遗产地已经面临着海岸侵蚀的威胁。到2100年，整个地中海地区出现洪水和侵蚀的概率分别会上升50%和13%。除了突尼斯的阿拉伯老城以及土耳其的桑索斯和莱顿遗址这两处遗产地以外，该地区其它遗产地均面临其中一项风险。

图3：在当前和未来条件下，每处世界遗产地的洪水风险指数。图源：Reimann等

研究点名指出了亟需制定适应性规划的地区。作者建议，鉴于这些遗产地都是标志性景点，或可用来提高公众对应对气候变化的意识。

摘要：UNESCO World Heritage sites (WHS) located in coastal areas are increasingly at risk from coastal hazards due to sea-level rise. In this study, we assess Mediterranean cultural WHS at risk from coastal flooding and erosion under four sea-level rise scenarios until 2100. Based on the analysis of spatially explicit WHS data, we develop an index-based approach that allows for ranking WHS at risk from both coastal hazards. Here we show that of 49 cultural WHS located in low-lying coastal areas of the Mediterranean, 37 are at risk from a 100-year flood and 42 from coastal erosion, already today. Until 2100, flood risk may increase by 50% and erosion risk by 13% across the region, with considerably higher increases at individual WHS. Our results provide a first-order assessment of where adaptation is most urgently needed and can support policymakers in steering local-scale research to devise suitable adaptation strategies for each WHS.

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